By Ashley McCarty
The long-anticipated blessing of a COVID-19 vaccine now seems more tangible than ever as the year draws to a close.
According to the CDC, as of Nov. 24, five COVID-19 vaccines have entered large-scale (Phase Three) clinical trials in the United States. Of the five, Moderna, Inc. and Pfizer, Inc., have both requested an emergency use authorization from the FDA. The FDA will meet on Dec. 10 to discuss the request from Pfizer, Inc., and Dec. 17 for Moderna, Inc.
“Whoever gets their application in first will be the first ones considered, and that’s probably going to be Pfizer. They’ve already requested emergency use authorization from the FDA. I think Moderna has also done that shortly after Pfizer did, so I think it’s going to be first in, first out. I think it’s going to be Pfizer,” said Adams County Health Commissioner Dr. William Hablitzel.
Hablitzel suspects that the county will see its first doses by the end of the year, though those lucky enough to receive it first are currently being actively discussed.
“The CDC is just making — I think they just voted on recommendations this week on Tuesday — and those recommendations then will be sort of refined and considered by each state. Those discussions are happening now. There’s going to be some variations I believe between states, but certainly those that are viewed as being the highest risk groups will be first,” said Hablitzel.
Those highest risk groups inclyde people such as residents in extended care facilities.
“Like nursing homes, and we’re talking about frontline healthcare providers, hospital workers. Then, there’s a lot of other people that are in priority groups that will fall quickly behind those, but there’s going to be a limited number of [doses]. They have several million doses already manufactured, but when you spread that out throughout the country, that won’t go far, so that’s why they need to have a triage,” said Hablitzel.
As of now, there is no inclination of long-term effects regarding the recipients of these vaccines.
“I think physicians are very interested in reading the studies and the results of the phase three clinical trials that Pfizer and Moderna have done. Those will eventually be published in peer review articles; peer review meaning they will be reviewed by experts of that field throughout the world. I think there’s going to be transparency, I think they’ll show exactly what they’ve done in these trials, and that will be reassuring to be able to read that. So, I think there’s going to be an effort to make sure that the healthcare professionals receive as much information as they need to be confident about this vaccine,” said Hablitzel.
Doctors are going to have to be comfortable about the vaccine to recommend it to their patients, he said.
“I think that material will be available for us. It’s just not available right now because it’s new. This has been very rapid-paced. So, will there be some people with some reservations? Well, we have people that have reservations of having children immunized with the measles vaccine, which has been around and proven safe for well over a decade. So, sure, there will be people with [reluctance]. There’s people reluctant with any kind of immunization,” said Hablitzel.
The rapidity in which these vaccines were created is a testament to the advances in science.
“It’s true that we haven’t seen vaccines produced at this pace for a brand new organism, but you also look at what’s changed in science. Within a month or two of this first being identified in China, which was November or December of last year — we’re approaching a year now — the genetic sequence of this virus was already determined, and already distributed around the world for researchers to start studying this brand new virus. That’s incredible. That’s technology that 10 years ago would have been unheard of,” said Hablitzel.
Science has progressed so that it has enabled things to be done very quickly, he said.
“So, maybe 10 years ago this speed would seem reckless — I think now this speed reflects the urgency that we’re seeing in the country, and also reflects the potential we have now in science. If we want to make a big impact in shortening the duration of a pandemic like COVID-19, a vaccine is going to be an integral part of that. Otherwise, this process is going to last a long time, perhaps years, as we saw in the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918. So, hopefully we can shorten that duration, shorten the number of lives impacted by combining vaccines with all the other things that we’re trying to do to slow spread,” said Hablitzel.
Pfizer, Inc.’s vaccine showed a 95 percent effectiveness in preventing infections, according to data produced in the Phase Three clinical trial; Moderna, Inc.’s vaccine has a 94.1 percent effectiveness.
Adams County remains on the watch list to go purple on the Public Health Advisory System, though Hablitzel is doubtful the county will see a change in color. Accordingly to preliminary data, three indicators for the county which were previously met have dropped off since last week.
“These indicators and the data are based on a three-week running average. So, every week, one week drops off and another is added, then those are averaged. So, that influences what’s announced each Thursday. I think we’ll be fine. I don’t think we will go to purple. With virtually the entire state red, I don’t think we’re going to be purple,” said Hablitzel.
The areas previously triggered in the system were new case increases, emergency department visits, and outpatient visits.
“These are outpatient visits of people that had symptoms like COVID-19 that subsequently tested positive, and then there was the emergency department visits. I believe all three of those indicators we will probably not trip this week. It’s good, but those are also indicators that we don’t have a lot of impact on here. It’s based on data reporting from hospitals. So, we don’t really see that data often. That data is available after the fact, and there’s adjustments. That’s why it’s hard to know based on today what’s going to be at the end of the day when more data comes in from previous weeks and they make adjustments,” said Hablitzel.
No matter what color we are, however, it’s a moot point, he said.
“We have an incredibly high incident of new cases of COVID-10 in Adams County. We are 761.79 cases per 100,000. That’s that new case per capita, where it’s adjusting the number based on county population, so we can compare Adams County to Hamilton County, to Franklin County. That number, the CDC defines that number — if it’s greater than 100 per 100,000 — being high incidence. That means there’s a lot going on. We are over seven times that number, and until that number drops below 100, we can’t leave red. So, we’re going to be red for a while,” said Hablitzel.
Adams County is joined by 75 other counties in Ohio currently at red, or Level Three Public Emergency, which indicates very high exposure and spread. Four counties are currently purple; only nine counties have resisted the crimson wave.
“Some of these indicators are improved this week. That makes us feel good. I don’t think it means that we’re going to go purple, but the reality is — there is a lot of virus out there, a lot of transmission. It’s affecting our nursing homes, it’s affecting the hospitals, it’s more challenging, more difficult now to transfer patients from our hospital to larger facilities that have intensive care units, and they’re struggling now to make these transfers. University Hospital is converting some of their nursing units into intensive care units that they can accommodate higher level of care. All that is worrisome,” said Hablitzel.
The effect of family gatherings over Thanksgiving is still a trepidatious story to be told.
“So, the numbers look good, or better, improved — it still shows that there is a lot of infection out there. So, we can’t let our guard down, and I think as we make effective changes in our lifestyle to try to limit the spread — masks, distance, good hygiene, avoiding crowds — I think you’re going to see these numbers drop,” said Hablitzel.